1/4/2026
They got the âbadâ man.
In This Week's Issue:
- Equity Markets
- Trump got his Guy
- How Far Can Gold Run?
- How to Play Oil - DLNG
- Crypto Market
- Tax Loss Harvesting
- Bitcoin Cash on the Verge of Breaking Out
- Will Monero Break out into All-time Highs?
Happy New Year from us at Skeptical Investing. I want to thank you for all of your support over the past year. Now having writing these for a year and a few months I can confirm that it has been just as enjoyable for me to write them as I hope they have been for you to read them.
I have learned a bunch and I hope you have too.
Here's to another year of solving this unsolvable puzzle.
Equity Markets
Trump Got His Guy
Well. Well. Well..
If you missed the last newsletter, you're in for a real treat.
Hereâs a snippet of what we discussed:
From Trump's tweet, he is suggesting that Venezuela's not complying with his buddy-buddy system and that he is threatening military action, similar to what he did to Iran.
Letâs just send some bombers in the middle of the night to blow up their energy source.
You may see this as rash or brutal, but this is completely normal when you look back at history. When the current world leading power begins getting challenged, and negotiations are no longer working, they have to use military means to remain the leading power.
Itâs like a little brother picking on the older brother; it's all fun and games until the older brother wants to win and does so by physical force.
Trump just has bombs at his disposal â so why not?
Hereâs the series of events that unfolded.
He certainly went in with bombs:
And came back with Maduro (Venezuela's head honcho) and his wife. The poor girlâs just collateral damage that Trump will use to blackmail Maduro.
Itâs a wild world we live in.
If you havenât heard any of Trump's speeches since â you've ought to.
The vocabulary is specifically selected to make Maduro out to be a criminal that has completed the most heinous acts. They label him as a child trafficker, a drug smuggler, and a cartel leader.
It gets you thinking â is he really that bad or does Trump want to be made out as the good guy?
I favor the latter.
If you have read âConfessions of an Economic Hitmanâ by John Perkins, youâll know whatâs coming next.
The States will send money to Venezuela calling it a âcapital infusionâ or some other misleading jargon, making it appear that the US is the saving grace for Venezuela.
To the naked eye, it seems all well and good, except for the fact that it will indebt Venezuela up to its eyeballs.
And what happens when Venezuela canât repay its debt obligations to the US?
The US will snag them.
Straws installed in the ground, pumping that liquid gold faster than a spaceship entering space.
Theyâll chuck it on a boat over âThe Gulf of Americaâ to the refineries on the southern coast of the US.
Then we can call it âcheap green American energyâ.
And keep China out of the backyard...
How Far Can Gold Run?
Last week we discussed the relationship between Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Oil.
You may want to go back to the previous issue before you read on.
The uptrend for the shiny stuff is in motion, and if we look at the relationship between Gold and the S&P, it shows that it has a long way to run.
The chart below goes back to 1891 and gives you an idea of the outperformance we could expect to see in gold vs. the S&P.
And this doesn't happen overnight.
Although Gold was up 66% last year â the pop merely scratched the surface of what's to come.
All the metals could go through a cooling off period during the beginning of this year, as they are slightly overvalued on smaller timeframes.
Below youâll see the chart of Gold. The MACD and RSI are both extremely overbought.
So a period of consolidation shouldn't be a surprise.
Any meaningful correction will be a good place to add positions. Youâll want a portion in your portfolio or under your pillow over the next 10 years.
How to Play Oil - DLNG
Directly investing in Oil involves getting into futures contracts, which requires leverage, which I stay away from.
Since that is off the table, we have to look at secondary or tertiary effects of how the price of oil or the increase of production of oil will impact companies involved with it.
Adding this in at the last minute as the overnight trading has started. $100B added to the Oil majors - it pays to be skeptical about the news.
Let me give you an example of my approach:
DLNG (Dynagas LNG Partners LP) is a liquified natural gas transporter.
They own sexy ships like this:
And ship LNG all over the world.
Theyâve been in a nasty bear market since their IPO in 2013.
They trade on a P/E of 2.45...
In plain English â if you brought this whole company based on its trailing twelve months performance, it would take you 2 and a half years to pay off the investment.
It gets better.
If the company were to sell off all its assets (ships) and pay off its liabilities, they'd end up with +/- $484M.
You may not have picked it up, but in the first picture the Market Cap is only $135.9M.
Youâre buying a few boats for a quarter of their replacement cost.
Earnings have been increasing and are projected to continue to increase.
If you stupidly brought at the IPO, when optimism was peaking, you would have been down 96% from the highs come 2020. Covid â that plague thing â created a perfect capitulation event that would have scared any last outsider shareholders out.
Practically all of them took their losses and handed the stock back to insiders who are incentivized by the performance of the company.
Of course, there is risk, but the perceived risk is far greater than what Iâm seeing. If covid couldn't kill this company, I think it can weather a few storms.
Iâll be clipping a 5% dividend until investors price this correctly.
Investing is more about portfolio management than individual stock picking.
Picking approximately 10 sectors and weighting them correctly is far more powerful to the overall performance of your portfolio and your mental sanity, as certain sectors take off, others will pull back.
If youâre going to pick individual stocks, limit it to 1-2% of the overall portfolio so that one bad egg doesnât destroy you.
If you donât have time to pick individual stocks, you can pick an ETF like BOAT (which is a global shipping ETF). The ETF should give you a broad allocation to stocks within that sector but not over allocate to a certain one stock.
Crypto Market
Tax Loss Harvesting
With the end of the year coming and going, it allowed investors, including myself, to reshuffle the crypto portfolio and take losses on some assets to offset gains on others.
The US tax code doesnât allow you to buy and sell the same stock within a 30-day period. Whereas for crypto, this rule doesnât apply... Yet.
It allows investors to sell losing positions and buy them back the same day, locking in losses to offset gains on other assets.
Although itâs weird to technically âtake a lossâ on assets you want to hold, itâs all part of the game we play, and well, I donât make the rules.
Needless to say, this probably added some additional downward pressure to the price of some assets as smarter investors sold. Sorry not sorry.
Here is my portfolio after making a few changes:
Most of the higher weighed positions are because of price appreciation that has occured rather than over allocation to begin with.
Bitcoin Cash on the Verge of Breaking Out
From my previous newsletter:
I did a similar move on BCH:
Reducing 50% of exposure at the pink box with the intention of missing out on some gains but reducing downside risk.
Obviously, BCH has held up much stronger than XRP during that time and is now entering the decision stage for me. Do I reallocate or do I rotate?
BCH was up 400% from entry and XRP was up 450%. So, the emotional pain watching that go all the way back down would send a grown man into depression.
Let's chalk that up as âthe cost of mental sanityâ.
Here is the updated chart:
Itâs looking like it wants to go for it.
If we can break through the local highs that were set in 2024 at $720, we could be in for some excitement... Finally.
The risk to reward at this price still isnât that ideal to go buying here, but weâve surely come a long way since we were buying at $114 a couple of years ago!
Iâll sit on cash and wait for new opportunities to arise.
Will Monero Break into All-time Highs?
Monero continues to grind higher and is trying to break into all-time highs.
It continues to make higher highs and higher lows in price action and is getting steeper, signaling that momentum is building.
If we clear both the 2018 and 2021 highs around $520, we should be able to take a stab at the 4.236 Fib extension.
Iâll start selling near the 2.618 extension on the marketcap chart. That's 170% away from where we are now.
Over the next couple of weeks, I expect the markets to be more volatile as investors decide where they are going to position for the next year.
Hold onto your hats â this year is set up to be a bumpy road.
My thoughts now are that we continue moving higher during the beginning of the year but once people come back from summer holidays we could be in for some chaos.
Until then,
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
Ever wonder how I stay on top of dozens of positions without getting buried in spreadsheets? I built this portfolio tracker to manage my own holdings across stocks, crypto, and more. Itâs clean, powerful, and yours for free: Skeptical Investing Crypto and Stock Tracker
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is not investment advice. It is provided solely for educational purposes. Our aim is to enhance your understanding and decision-making as an investor; however, you are solely responsible for conducting your own due diligence and consulting a qualified financial professional prior to making any investment decisions. Skeptical Investing and Matthew Lieshout reserve all rights to the content of this publication and related materials. Proceed with caution and at your own risk.
