1/25/2026
Uncertainty at its finest. Welcome to the party, old money...
In This Week's Issue:
- Equity Markets
- Uncertainty Staring you in the Face
- GIFI Merger
- Crypto Market
- Volatility Strikes Monero
- Litecoin Enters Wyckoff Accumulation
Equity Markets
Uncertainty Staring You in the Face
Military threats, bombing countries, stealing presidents ā you could make a movie about what is happening in the world today.
One thing that is coming to light is that the wealthy are showing their uncertainty by buying the most conservative asset class ā gold and silver.
Where the money is shifting, is often the best indication of where emotional sentiment lies.
Gold is now at $4,987/oz
Silver is at $103/oz
And Platinum is at $2,734/oz
We discussed platinum all the way back in newsletter #11 on 3/16/25 when the price was around $1,000/oz!
Here's the snippet:
Further out on the risk curve, platinumās mirroring XRPās accumulation setupāover years, not months. Itās likely bottomed, just waiting for liquidity to spark. Downside risk is limited as buyers have found a floor, but patience is key. Could be a sleeper and one to keep your eye on.
Iād be surprised if it consolidates forever. I believe the market has found reasonable resistance, just waiting for liquidity to rotate to get the prices moving.
Platinum didnāt shag around before it blew its lid off.
Of course, Iām surprised with both the timing of the breakout and how aggressive the move has played out.
But when something is held down in a tight consolidation range for 6 years, what do I expect?
As the saying goes, āThe tighter and longer the range, the higher the space.ā
It practically followed XRPās roadmap.
Weāve moved at such a velocity, with no pullbacks, that the train has well and truly left the station. Which makes this more difficult for traders to risk-manage. Although I believe this run will continue for a substantial amount of time, entry points post breakout have been non existent up to this point.
Any significant pullbacks should be thought of as only retracements to the continuing long-term trend.
As a finishing note on metals, it baffles me to see all their charts explode like meme coins. Trillions of dollars are added to the largest asset classes in the world. Scary to watch and one for the ages.
GIFI Merger
I had an interesting situation occur this week where one of the stocks I owned got brought out by another company.
GIFI ā Gulf Island Fabrication Inc ā was brought out by IES in a merger.
IES brought GIFI for $192M.
Fairly normal stuff with smaller companies.
My position in GIFI was closed automatically; up a couple percent from entry. Itās more annoying than anything.
Luckily, I had DLNG (that we talked about last newsletter) waiting in the wings, so I brought it with the money that came out of GIFI.
Not exactly a like-for-like company but from similar sectors.
It shows that these things can happen, and you have to accept the result and move on to the next trade.
As more of these quirks come up, Iāll point them out for your education.
Crypto Market
Volatility Strikes Monero
Over the past couple of weeks, Monero got enough juice to break into all-time highs.
Since we last spoke about it, the price was around $420 before it shot up to $800/coin.
We are now seeing an aggressive pullback to retest the all-time high.
Below, I have the weekly timeframe on topāso you maintain your long-term view, and the daily chart on the bottomāso you can see that the lower timeframe structure is still being maintained.
This is common when you break out from a key level. The price comes back down to test the liquidity.
What was once resistance, is now turned into support.
Iāll be honest, not all investors can handle this sort of volatility in their portfolio.
Up 90%. Down 40%.
You need serious conviction and understanding of what youāre doing to play around here. Itās not kids play.
This is my sandbox ā I have learned to manage volatility through portfolio and risk management. It took time for me to see things happen over and over again before I understood the ebbs and flows of the market. Like anything, it took practice.
Positive outcomes certainly help with that.
This has been somewhat of an emotionless trade, as it has worked out better than I had thought.
Iāll be watching to see if we maintain above the 2017 & 2021 highs to confirm their resistance. This would also mean that we wouldn't have a significant trend break on the lower timeframes.
If we maintain the January 4th lows at $417, there shouldnāt be anything to worry about.
Below youāll see the 4-hour chart where the blue box indicates the most recent structural low. The blue box is down 10% from where we sit now.
Fingers crossed we hold.
Litecoin Enters Wyckoff Accumulation
It feels like Iāve been harping on this one far too much lately, but it has reached an area where I have been able to take a couple of stabs (buys) at it.
Litecoinās hash rate continues to increase ā which shows that miners are still getting rewarded for their efforts and is an indication of Litecoinās increase in miner interest.
This makes the network stronger over time and becomes harder to hack.
Never forget that this is a granddaddy in the crypto world and was once the third largest behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. Itās had 13 years of continued uptime since its creation in 2013.
Below, you have Litecoin on top and platinum on the bottom. Not identical, but both have similar crashes, with a drift back to the bottom of the range before consolidating near range lows. Both charts are on log scale, so the low doesnāt look as close as it otherwise would.
Hereās the same charts - not on a log scale.
And if you donāt like my platinum reference ā here's Litecoin on the top again with XRP on the bottom. 
What the heck ā let me do Monero as well.
Alright, I'll stop clowning around ā hopefully that's enough long-term perspective to get the picture.
Our job is to find entries at or as near as possible to the range lows, which is why Iāve been staring at Litecoin.
Letās get into the nuts and bolts here.
On the 4-hour timeframe we have been forming a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Trust me ā I've tried to make this as pretty as I can.
I have labelled the parallel channel of our range that was on the long-term chart above. The line is still around 15% lower than current price. I put a higher value on the Wyckoff accumulation structure vs. the channel line, because the channel is built off two arbitrarily points on candle wicks and if you were to move the two points slightly, the line moves dramatically on a smaller timeframe causing inaccuracy.
If we break to the upside and begin the test phase, I will be asking my wife for more money to add to this position.
Iām not expecting this to explode overnight or even within the next year. But within 5 years, I would imagine it would be materially higher.
Iām not going to say that Litecoin will take off just like Platinum did, but if I could have another simple trade, I would take it.
Letās see what the market gods have to say.
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
Ever wonder how I stay on top of dozens of positions without getting buried in spreadsheets? I built this portfolio tracker to manage my own holdings across stocks, crypto, and more. Itās clean, powerful, and yours for free: Skeptical Investing Crypto and Stock Tracker
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