12/14/2025
Venezuela huh? Let me check their oil deposits..
In This Week's Issue:
- Equity Markets
- Tension on Oil
- Metals vs. Oil
- Crypto Market
- ZCASH
- Bitcoin's a Little Whobbly
- Portfolio Changes with XRP & BCH
- Rotations - LTC, STRK, FIL, ICP
Equity Markets
Tension on Oil
When Trump tweets, you better be reading between the lines. It wasn't long ago that he was trying to secure Canada, Greenland, Panama, and Mexico.
To the sheeple, these are seen as wild claims, but they are tactical.
The US has become so reliant on resources from around the world, which is a problem if youāre getting into geopolitical tension. Heās attempting to make allies with countries that have something to offer.
The Tariffs have been the perfect example of Trump testing the waters with other nations but they are proof of the geopolitical tension in the world today.
With the tariffs, the US consumer just ended up paying the fee that was imposed by other companies. But Trump knows which countries will play ball and which ones he needs to bomb gently shake.
Itās important that the US secures its resources, and itās doing so by strong arming its surrounding countries.
It was only a matter of time before Trump went after Venezuela.
Just follow the money ā or liquid gold in this case.
I mean, God damn ā they could and should be one of the richest countries in the world, but they are run by the gangs and cartels with unbelievable corruption.
The shit is just sitting in the ground and they canāt figure out how to get it all out of the ground.
Either way, Trump wants his finger in the middle of that pie and will use any means to strengthen that relationship, if you can call it that.
China is entering Venezuela through the back door using economic lifelines (financing), diplomatic backing (incentivizing/sponsoring certain political candidates),and strategic infrastructure (expanding oil exploration activities). As it sits today, 90% of the oil that Venezuela is extracting ends up going to China.
From Trump's tweet above, he is suggesting that Venezuela is not complying with his "buddy-buddy system" and that he is actually threatening military action similar to what he did to Iran.
Letās just send some bombers in the middle of the night to blow up their energy source.
You may see this as rash or brutal, but this is completely normal when you look back at history. When the current world leading power begins getting challenged, and negotiations are no longer working, they have to use military means to remain the leading power.
Itās like a little brother picking on the older brother; it's all fun and games until the older brother wants to win and does so by physical force.
Trump just has bombs at his disposal ā so why not?
Metals vs. Oil
Let me preface this by setting the stage with showing you metals.
Gold in black (candlesticks), Silver in green and platinum in orange.
Metals are screaming uncertainty:
- Gold ā up 66% on the year.
- Silver ā up 100% on the year.
- Platinum up 93% on the year.
You donāt have them breaking out of 45-year ranges for no reason. The shiny things are a safe haven and are historic capital protection mechanisms. Of late, fund managers have opted for a 60-40 bond to equity portfolio with bonds being the safety mechanism. However, now with interest rates rising, bonds are far from the ideal solution.
If you read the book Wealth, War, & Wisdom by Barton Biggs, youāll understand how valuable it can be to have a couple coins hanging around. And it canāt be the ones they print.
For the most part, oil market structure trends with other commodities such as gold, silver and platinum.
Below, I am showing Gold and oil. Youāll notice the large divergence that has occurred over the last 2 years. Gold is in candlesticks, and oil futures are blue.
And here is oil against Silver.
Here is it against platinum that we have shown in the past, with its recent breakout.
So, for it to maintain some sort of parity, metals must drop considerably or oil must explode.
The higher timeframe shows that we are in early stages of a commodity bull market. It will likely surprise investors in both magnitude and duration. If history repeats itself like it usually does, the next 10 years in this space will be prolific.
Until every fund manager under the sun suggests having gold in your portfolio, the show must go on.
If I could suggest something ā enjoy those cheap gas prices because theyāre about to run rampant and continue the inflation that covid exacerbated. It started in 2008 when they got the green light to print.
Crypto Market
ZCASH
You naughty little thing...
From our last newsletter:
On a more positive note, ZCASH (ZEC) has had a magical couple of weeks.
Someone put a rocket up its arse and it is now up 200% over the past two weeks. This oneās been a slogāāI bought ZCASH in 2023, with an average entry of $31.95, as it was bouncing off prior resistance in the hope that the privacy narrative would come to fruition. I was down 50% by July of 2024.
Yup, -50% on my hard-earned capital.
Now that it's up over 400% since 2023, it feels like some vindication for the pain that was endured.
It reminds me how fun torturous investing can be.
The ultimate marshmallow test.
It is also a reminder of portfolio management. When I brought ZCASH, it was only 7% of my crypto portfolio and was a play on the privacy theme. The transactions using ZCASH are nearly impossible to trace, so I figured that if people do use crypto as money, they wouldnāt want their barista to trace how much money they have or donāt have.
Being down 3.5% on a portfolio is more stomachable than 50%.
This could be a trigger moment for the privacy cryptos, even though I know itās years away before we start using crypto as a means to transact.
As a side note, I will be de-risking from this position as we approach $250, as the 4.236 on the smaller range lines up with the 0.618 & 0.702 retrace on the larger range. If we get to that level, Iāll be up 800% and as my father often says, āthat's better than a clip around the ears."
Below is an updated price chart:
ZCASH went on to hit the 4.236 fib extension on the Marketcap chart as shown below.
TradingView doesnāt have enough data on the marketcap chart, so I had to pull this crude looking one from CoinMarketCap.
Marketcap charts are often more accurate with respect to extensions. Crypto projects - like the US government - increase the supply of tokens. Whether itās through a mining reward or tokens being unlocked, the result is inflation of supply. If inflation isnāt contained, it can ruin projects and considerably reduce the price of an asset.
Yes, Iāve been burned by this in the past ā so take my cuts as a lesson to regularly check the coins inflation before blindly buying.
As I explained previously, it made sense for me to reduce exposure to ZCASH and so I sold portions of my position before it reached the full extension.
Itās not that Iām calling the top of ZCASH even though I wouldnāt be surprised if it is, but the risk/reward had swung so far out of my favor and thereās other assets I could rotate a portion of that capital into. More on that later...
Bitcoin's a Little Whobbly
The health of the crypto market is often determined by what Bitcoin is doing.
And if you look below, the indicators arenāt looking too hot.
The MACD has officially crossed bearish on the monthly timeframe and if we look back to past bull runs, this has been a sign that the bear market is already well on its way.
The RSI has also crossed to the downside, showing underlying bearishness.
On the weekly timeframe, we see similar things with both the MACD and RSI.
Fair to say... I donāt love it.
The one missing piece to all previous bull runs is the Bitcoin dominance dropping.
The indicators on the dominance are pointing down, meaning capital is starting to flow out of Bitcoin and into altcoins.
But what if this thesis never happens in this cycle?
Itās a little hard to hang my hat on this 100% happening when considering what Bitcoin is showing.
Itās moments like these where you need to put your hand up and say, 'I donāt have a fān clue what the market is trying to show me.'
And when thatās the case, I need to play defense.
So, in addition to selling 100% of my ZCASH position, I have also reduced my exposure to other assets that have increased considerably ā that being XRP and Bitcoin Cash.
That gets me to a 40% cash position ā and to a place where I can sleep well at night.
This may be getting a bit in the weeds but hear me out.
Portfolio Changes with XRP & BCH
Hereās the XRP chart on the daily:
XRP broke to the downside of the descending triangle with a perfect resistance test at the 702 Fibonacci retracement. I sold 50% in the pink box with the option to buy back in at the $3.30 price if that becomes an option. So, Iād miss out on a 20% gain on the 50% I sold. Seems like a good exchange for a good night's sleep, especially when you consider that most altcoins lose 80% of their value during bear markets.
I did a similar move on BCH:
Reducing 50% of exposure at the pink box with the intention of missing out on some gains but reducing downside risk.
Obviously, BCH has held up much stronger than XRP during that time and is now entering the decision stage for me. Do I reallocate or do I rotate?
BCH was up 400% from entry and XRP was up 450%. So, the emotional pain watching that go all the way back down would send a grown man into depression.
Let's chalk that up as āthe cost of mental sanityā.
Rotations - LTC, FIL, STRK, ICP
Taking profit on some of these winners freed up excess cash to take small stabs (approximately. 2% positions) in the following assets:
Litecoin
Litecoin has been coined as the crypto for silverāāit has a hard cap and has had 100% uptime since 2013 when it came online.
Letās call it an OG crypto.
It flew in 2017. Iām comparing the previous LTC cycle to where we are today.
And yes, in 2017 it went from $4 to $400 within a year.
Similar to 2017, it has been forming a long consolidation range at the end of a bear market ā letās just hope the market gods hold the whole market together. It wonāt move in isolation, so it will need the Bitcoin dominance (talked about earlier) to drop for any kind of meaningful move to happen.
Starknet, Filecoin, ICP
The thesis for all these three are very similar, so I will talk to all three by showing the Starknet chart.
All three coins are showing a Wykoff accumulation range after going through a nasty bear market. With the range low acting as a strong support, the risk to reward is significantly in my favor.
Iāve added the Wykoff accumulation schematic in the background.
With only a 2% allocation to each of the 4 mentioned above, Iām risking 1.6% of the portfolio if they lose the support at the bottom of the range and drop 20%. At that point, I would take losses on those positions and wait for another set up on another day.
Whether this works out or not, it is a good representation of portfolio management and what it takes to be successful in this market. Not every position will be a winner, but if you can minimize losses and let winners run, you can still profit.
Until then, may the market gods be ever in our favor.
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
Ever wonder how I stay on top of dozens of positions without getting buried in spreadsheets? I built this portfolio tracker to manage my own holdings across stocks, crypto, and more. Itās clean, powerful, and yours for free: Skeptical Investing Crypto and Stock Tracker
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