2/8/2026
Welcome to the blood bath.
In This Week's Issue:
- Equity Markets
- Macro Trends
- Lite Portfolio
- Crypto Market
- Welcome to the Blood Bath
- Where Iâll be Looking to Add
We had some action in markets over the past week, especially in the crypto market, which we will expand on in the crypto section. But before we do, we thought you'd want to be the first to know that we've joined substack!
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Equity Markets
Macro Trends
With volatility returning, I thought it would be good to zoom out and look at the macro trends that I will be following and investing in over the next 5-10 years.
I have talked about most of these before, but wanted to add them to one place so we can track how theyâre doing against everyoneâs favorite comparable...
The S&P.
In the second portion of the equity section, Iâve put together a Lite Portfolio made of ETFs that we can track together over the years to come. My hope is that by exposing you to these "unloved" sectors, I am able to show you that you don't need to be invested in the most popular stocks to make money.
Sometimes money is made where the noise is not.
Alright, letâs dive in.
For the following charts, I am comparing a sector ETF to the SPX.
Most of these sectors are down by 80% vs. the SPX over a number of years but are creating bottoms as the trend begins to change.
These sectors are starved of capital and equities within the sectors have been priced for bankrupcy. In some way they've managed to survive and begun making meaningful profit compared to their valuations.
EEM vs. SPX (Emerging Markets ETF):
XLE vs. SPX (Energy ETF):
Since we have had such an aggressive move in metals, I would generally wait for a pullback to buy, however, since I have a long-term view of them increasing, I will add them to the portfolio as well.
Here is gold, silver, and platinum vs. SPX, all on one chart:
Below I have three ETFs that gain exposure to all three metals.
GDX vs. SPX (gold miner ETF, but also has a little exposure to other metals):
SLV vs. SPX (Silver ETF):
SBSW vs. SPX (Platinum mining company based in South Africa):
OIH vs. SPX (Oil Services ETF):
ECNS vs. SPX (China small cap ETF):
COAL vs. SPX (COAL is a recently formed ETF, so isnât the greatest representation of the sector however, I like its holdings):
FCG vs. SPX (Natty gas ETF):
As you can see, these ETFs have all been hammered against the SPX, and now all of them are at lows creating accumulation ranges.
If you look at FCG shown above, it has somewhat maintained it's relationship with the SPX since 2016. The tight accumulation range has been forming for the last 10 years showing it's found a floor.
Now all we need to do is wait for the capital to rotate.
Lite Portfolio
Iâve gone ahead and made a portfolio that is equal-weighted for each sector. For the metals portion, I have allocated less exposure to the more volatile investments.
I have picked an arbitrary amount of $10,000 to allocate to each sector so our portfolio looks like this:
At this point its more important to track the percent return per year and then against the S&P. Over the next few months, weâll check in on it and see how itâs doing.
Crypto Market
Welcome to the Blood Bath
Last week saw some serious volatility in the crypto markets. Bitcoin dropped 14% in a day and took the whole market with it. The next day, buyers stepped in, pushing Bitcoin up 12%.
We wicked down 50% from the high that was set in October, 2025. At this point, the bear market is well set in, with most coins down a considerable amount from their highs around that time.
Below, I have a list of cryptos that show the performance from December 2nd, 2024, after XRP topped. I have taken ZEC off, as it is an outlier to the rest of the market's movement.
Only Monero is still positive.
As you are aware, I have been sitting on +/- 40% cash since late October, and with the two liquidations (1 on October 6th and the other this past week), itâs time for me to start hunting for bottoms.
I have the current bitcoin chart on the left, with the three preceding bear market lows on the right.
Thereâs a few things going on here:
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I added the % drop for each bear market
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I have put a blue box at the latest consolidation before capitulation
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I am pointing at the high sell volume on the capitulation events
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The RSI is also at a point where you would expect buyers to step in
Normally, by the time we get to a major capitulation, the majority of the downside move has been completed. We often roll over again and test the lows but that is nothing like the percentage drop we have just experienced. The missing piece has been news. We havenât had anything like the previous bull markets to scare the weak hands out of this market.
Which, if and when that happens, I will be buying.
Iâm not trying to catch falling knives, so I'll be waiting for some sort of accumulation to form. You can see with previous bear markets, it can take months to stabilize the price-action and absorb the move that just happened.
Where I will be Looking to Add
The past two crypto cycles have been nothing like 2017, where everything and its mother ripped. As the market becomes more mature, you have to become more selective with your coin picking.
Coins that have held up well during the preceding bear markets have had the best chance to reach new highs in the next bull run. Those hindered by high inflation struggle to do anything meaningful.
In the previous run I was on the right side of the luck with XRP, BCH and ZEC popping nicely. I also benefited from Moneroâs late runâwho caught a bid on the privacy narrative. ZEC is likely a dead project now, with all of its internal developers leaving the project after the pop.
Makes you wonder if it was coordinated... And letâs be honest, if you held and sold a ton, most of those developers probably donât need to work too hard anymore.
As we start to look for bottoms, I will be monitoring the drawdown of specific coins to see which ones are finding a stronger support floor higher than others.
Although I didnât get everything right in the past cycle, I survived the gauntlet and walked away with a lot of lessons that will help me take advantage of future runs. When I first entered this market in 2017, I was committed to the long game, and here we areânearly 10 years laterâwith a lot more knowledge and still a long runway to capitalize on future moves.
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
Ever wonder how I stay on top of dozens of positions without getting buried in spreadsheets? I built this portfolio tracker to manage my own holdings across stocks, crypto, and more. Itâs clean, powerful, and yours for free: Skeptical Investing Crypto and Stock Tracker
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is not investment advice. It is provided solely for educational purposes. Our aim is to enhance your understanding and decision-making as an investor; however, you are solely responsible for conducting your own due diligence and consulting a qualified financial professional prior to making any investment decisions. Skeptical Investing and Matthew Lieshout reserve all rights to the content of this publication and related materials. Proceed with caution and at your own risk.
