8/17/25
Ethereum's not going anywhere
In This Week's Issue:
- Equity Markets
- Indicies
- Nvidia
- Crypto Market Update
- Ethereum-You Little Ripper
- Monero
- Upward and Onward
Equities
Indicies
We're at a very interesting moment in all the indices. At moments like this, it feels like the market makers are in full control and are waiting for some news to allow us to break past significant levels. The DOW is on the cusp of breaking out into all-time highs.
The Russel is also sitting at key fib levels waiting for money to flow into the smaller cap stocks to make it a more broad-based rally.
The NASDAQ and S&P continue pushing into new highs. This emphasizes the concentration towards the MAG-7 â more on this later with NVDA.
NASDAQ:
S&P:
And if you thought everything wasnât tied together â Bitcoin broke into an all-time high at the same time the Russel broke through its 702 retracement.
A little fishy â but more proof it's one big trade.
Nvidia
Can delusion get any more delusional?
Nvidia is literally holding up the stock market â along with its other MAG-7 pals.
Trading at a P/E of 58, but what worries me more is that it is valued at 4.44T. For this to double, it has to accumulate more dough than is allocated to the whole UK stock market, or gobble up a number of the other markets below.
How are you supposed to make money from this?
Because..
The âmath ainât mathingâ.
I stand firm behind the idea that NVDA and the other MAG-7 will turn into a Dotcom bubble style crash, and we will be talking about how stupid people were to keep buying, many years from now.
And where might be the best place to play the AI/Tech race?
Further downstream.
While data centers are slowly sucking up our energy, all we hear about are the surface-level changes that are occurring. By 2028, data centers will make up 12% of the US energy consumption and the majority of this is new energy, which doesnât just come out of thin air.
Would you look at that.. Energy is 24% below its 10-year average P/E ratio.
Undercapitalized for years, and the reality of the situation is about to slap us in the face.
Everyone thinks net-zero is great until we donât have lights to turn on or canât charge our EVs. It must get that bad, there have to be consequences to the idiotic policies that get put into place, and we are approaching that point faster than most realize.
So, Iâll be hiding out in the âcheap stuffâ until people wake up.
Crypto Market
Ethereum â You Little Ripper
Most people underestimate the value Ethereum has on the entire crypto ecosystem. I pulled this chart from Electric Capital, who do yearly reports on the underlying development of different crypto projects.
Youâll notice the number of developers on Ethereum is considerably more than any other project. You can see the full report here: https://www.developerreport.com/developer-report?s=developer-report
Ethereum has the most developers due to its robust smart contract ecosystem, extensive developer tools, and large, active community fostering continuous innovation and adoption. It was also the âfirst on the blockâ, so it has some network effects as a result.
People trust its integrity; it's like seashells that were used for trade way back when. People trusted that a seashell would maintain its value and so could be used as a trusted medium of exchange before coins and other forms of money came into existence.
Some would say the USD had the same characteristics until they took it off the gold standard and changed to a debt-based money system. And to make matters worse, they started printing the hell out of it.
Greed is getting the best of them.
Below is proof that people are more comfortable moving larger amounts of money using ETH than other cryptos.
When Ethereum was down at $1,400, the market sentiment towards it was far from optimal. What a lot of people didnât realize is that Ethereum is so connected in the cryptocurrency world that if it went down, the whole market would crash.
Itâs fair to say it recovered well, pushing up 230% in 3 months. Now knocking on the door of an all time high, it feels like itâs waiting on its equity mates to start the party.
This has contributed to the drop in Bitcoin Dominance that we have previously discussed.
And on lower timeframes, we have seen a clear change of structure from bullish to bearish.
I would expect the bearish nature to continue as more money flows out of Bitcoin and into the Altcoins. I donât hold any Ethereum, but this is a good sign that the altcoin market is heating up.
Iâd be concerned if we broke above 62.5% BTC dominance and turned bullish again. But outside of that itâs a waiting game.
Monero
Monero did me dirty..
It completed an ABC down to previous resistance turned support and reached a 702 retracement, and the underlying indicators screamed oversold. During this time, Monero was hit with some negative news that it had been arbitraged by the Qubic network. Even to the point that Kraken temporarily paused deposits on its exchange: https://cointelegraph.com/news/kraken-pause-monero-deposits-after-51-attack
So as one would.. I added a smaller position hoping to capitalize on the altcoin resurgence. Itâs up 18% from the bottom.
I wonât bore you to death, as I have discussed my targets at length before.
Fundamentally and structurally bullish. Negative news often occurs at the best time to buy to test the retail investor.
I said screw you. Politely, of course.
Onwards and Upwards
Over the next few weeks, I will be looking for more of the same:
- Bitcoin to push higher and set new highs.. again
- Bitcoin dominance to keep dropping
- Altcoins continuing to wake up
- Signs of euphoria returning
With Bitcoin getting to a point where it could start its parabolic ending to the cycle, I will be watching for capital to start rotating into smaller altcoins. I have put 3 red boxes below to show where we potentially could be, and I am expecting the MVRV Z-Score to pop out of this range. When it does, we know weâre getting a little too frothy.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/
When euphoria does return, retail will chase the next big thing, one day it will be one altcoin popping off and the next it will be another one. Donât get caught flip-flopping and dropping the bag.
Youâll see it on the news; the story will tell you it's the next best thing, but theyâre trying to hype and manipulate retail to buy the top. Someone has to be a buyer for someone to sell, and when the buyers disappear, watch out.
The last few months have been a little slower, as expected during the summer months in the northern hemisphere, but I would expect liquidity and capital flows to increase heading into the end of the year.
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
Ever wonder how I stay on top of dozens of positions without getting buried in spreadsheets? I built this portfolio tracker to manage my own holdings across stocks, crypto, and more. Itâs clean, powerful, and yours for free: Skeptical Investing Crypto and Stock Tracker
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