7/20/25
One Year Later...
In This Week's Issue:
- Equity Markets
- A Year In Review
- Crypto Market Update
- Entering the Euphoria
- XRP ā One Hell of a Journey
- Where to Next?
Equities
A Year in Review
For the first time in a while, the media world has taken a break from large news events affecting the markets. In this addition, I thought Iād give an update on the stock portion of my investments.
Itās been near on a year since I changed to Interactive Brokers and decided to express my financial moves outside of real estate via these newsletters.
Most of these investments are far from sexy. Gold Miners, Uranium, Chinese Tech, Coal Miners, Natty gas plays, and Ag plays mainly via large fertilizer manufactures.
I use this as an illustration that you donāt have to be invested in the MAG-7 to do reasonably well in this market, despite what the media is telling you.
Consistency is the next element to compounding growth. Itās important to stay eyes wide open to risks (geopolitical, counterparty, systemic, etc.) that could impact portfolio performance and evaporate gains from previous years.
Iām undecided whether I release the whole portfolio as I would prefer readers to learn to fish for themselves then sell them the fish.
Iām leaving the Equity portion of this newsletter much shorter than usual as we have had more significant moves in crypto since the last edition.
Crypto Market
Entering the Euphoria
We have been blessed by the market Gods over the past few weeks.
Bitcoin has created a new all-time high breaking out of the ABC pattern we discussed for multiple weeks. It is now sitting around $118k. Despite the positive in price action, the euphoria on fintwit (financial twitter) hasnāt quite flicked into gear.
XRP has also broken out into a new all-time high set in 2018. A bittersweet moment for the whole XRP community and Iāll go into more of my journey later in this newsletter.
And the Bitcoin Dominance chart has finally started to roll over. This signifies that capital is beginning to flow out of Bitcoin and into Altcoins.
All good signs and indicators Iāve been waiting for, for the next altseason to kick in.
After years of staring at candlesticks it feels good to predict and understand the liquidity flows that occur. Iāll be the first one to say Iāve made plenty of mistakes on this journey, but those lessons can now be applied for the remainder of my life.
There will be a time Iām backing up the brinks again.
Like anyone Iām far from perfect and as for anything in life, doing what intrigues you repeatedly tends to lead you to some sort of success in the long term.
From my last newsletter:
We had a little help that the bottom of the C leg came with perfectly timed strikes on Iran driving fear into the market before quickly reversing.
Sometimes it feels like weāre all just puppets living in a simulation.
Now that we have reached the 702 retracement, I would expect some consolidation or a pull back on Bitcoin as the buyers get more comfortable with the fast moves in price. Iām not as convicted to how we get out of this range in the short term, but my long-term view is that we break to the upside.
I am aware of that getting out of ranges can be volatile, especially in the headline driven time we are in. One tweet or bombing can throw markets around something silly.
Coinbase (COIN) shown below in the candlesticks, has predominantly been following the altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) chart for the last 4 years since its IPO. In the last 2 weeks COIN is up 54% and is showing a clear divergence from TOTAL2.
Is the market showing itās hand?
What do the insiders at Coinbase know that we donāt?
My intuition is that they are expecting trading volume to increase dramatically, and so as they clip the ticket on trades, they will become more profitable.
Seems skeptical to me..
As touched on in previous newsletters, once Bitcoin escapes this range, I would expect the big money to start selling bitcoin and rotate into the altcoins causing them to have their time to shine.
Hereās an update on the COIN chart - a little catch-up game was in order, and it showed up. Total2 (Marketcap excluding Bitcoin) has made up ground on COIN.
XRP ā One Hell of a Journey
What most people donāt know is that XRP was the asset that burned me in 2017 ā yes, all $400 or something insignificant. It unlocked something in me that if I was getting hung out to dry, there must be other people on the other side of that trade that were making money.
It sparked endless curiosity towards investing/trading and a love-hate relationship for XRP.
Since then, I have dedicated a large portion of my somewhat private life to understanding and learning markets in the hope to benefit my future family in some way down the line. This was my āsecretā project. It stimulates me, pushes me and requires endless learning. Not just technically but predominately emotionally.
I could see the use case for XRP. Living in multiple countries and sending wires via swift wasnāt going to last. Banks charge $25/transaction and it take multiple days to move funds. A faster and cheaper option (XRP) would disrupt the industry.
I went down history lane and found this goldy ā living in my āparents' basementā buying XRP during the plandemic. $0.25 and a ton of knowledge later.
And then I continued to buy after the SEC sued Ripple Labs for selling XRP as an unregistered security. This was the SEC listening to their banker buddies and delaying XRPās growth. The crookās bankers were shaking in their boots; the disruption was beginning.
Now at all-time highs itās fair to say I have mixed emotions.
When it comes to making money on a computer screen it never seems real and thereās a part of me that doesnāt feel like I'm contributing to make the world a better place. Iām just extracting money from the markets instead of building or offering anything to civilization.
My hope is that with these newsletters you can take a feather from my hat and put it in yours to benefit your family and if not financially, you can instill in them endless curiosity towards whatever theyāre passionate about.
Where to Next?
For XRP the day will soon be upon us where I have to take profit and derisk my portfolio. I have an average purchase price of 48c so if it gets to technical levels where the risk to reward isnāt in my favor anymore, I will be selling 90%.
This has been my view on Bitcoin over the past year, and it as followed the price action of August 2017 (hourly timeframe) nearly to a T.
Similar to what we have seen on Gold recently. Gold being a slower moving asset, is on the monthly timeframe.
As with most bubbles they end with 5 distinct waves to the upside. Below I show Goldās 5 waves and what I am keeping an eye on for Bitcoin.
Altseasons in the past normally get geared up as bitcoin enters its final parabolic 5 wave move. This coincides with a drop in bitcoin dominance which is the rotation of capital where people get emotional and begin chasing the ānext shinny thingā.
If we see the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score firing to the upside during this time it will be a telltale sign that the top is near.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/
For most assets the marketcap chart was much more significant during the 2021 bullrun where BTC, ETH and ETC hit a full 4.236 extension on the marketcap but didn't quite make a full 4.236 extension on the price chart. Using bitcoin as an example below. Price on the left and Marketcap on the right.
For that reason, Iāll be using the marketcap charts to dictate my levels. They are more conservative and account for any inflation that has occurred to the assets over the years.
For XRP there are a number of technical indicators that line up at the 4.236 level on the marketcap chart.
I have pointed out a few of them below:
Iāll also be looking at the market structure, RSI, MACD and Stochastics as we reach these levels to dial in as I exit positions. The marketcap chart shows that we have 165% left in the move and on a price chart that gets us to +/- $9.15. As we approach these levels, I will be selling in smaller baskets to minimize exchange risk and banking risk.
You can do this for other assets especially the ones leading the market such as XLM, XMR, SUI, SOL, BNB to name a few. If these are all hitting their 4.236 at the same time, itās probably time to just sell everything and come back when the euphoria has dissipated. Likely years down the road.
During this topping process we could have 100% daily swings (up 60% then down 40%). Stick to your guns and enjoy the journey.
Iāll leave you with some advice, youāre extremely unlikely to sell the pico top, so itās a waste of time setting the expectation that you will. Sell as it approaches your targets and go on with your life without the stress.
As a wise investor once said, āyou donāt go broke taking profitā.
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
Ever wonder how I stay on top of dozens of positions without getting buried in spreadsheets? I built this portfolio tracker to manage my own holdings across stocks, crypto, and more. Itās clean, powerful, and yours for free: Skeptical Investing Crypto and Stock Tracker
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is not investment advice. It is provided solely for educational purposes. Our aim is to enhance your understanding and decision-making as an investor; however, you are solely responsible for conducting your own due diligence and consulting a qualified financial professional prior to making any investment decisions. Skeptical Investing and Matthew Lieshout reserve all rights to the content of this publication and related materials. Proceed with caution and at your own risk.
