5/18/25
Is United Health showing signs of rotation?
In This Week's Issue:
- Equitiy Markets
- United Health
- Crypto Market Update
- Bounce Confirmed?
- As for Monero..
Equities
United Health
As you may know I have my concerns over the S&P 500 and the concentration of certain stocks within the index. Up until recently United Health was the number 1 contributor to the value of the S&P.
This bad boy’s been going up and to the right since the 90’s.
This looks like a HUGE sign that the rotation of the market has begun. People are dropping over-valued stocks and chasing smaller market cap undervalued stocks instead.
How else do you get the largest contributor to the S&P (in teal) down 50% from the highs without effecting the S&P at all?
And guess who’s next? Apple..
That one will hurt a lot more than United Health.
Let’s not gloss over the fact that the United Health CEO was shot dead on the 4th of December (dotted vertical line below). As sad as it is, it marked the top.
You can believe that it was a coincidence, or maybe someone wanted to create a media driven narrative to allow them to sell and rotate before the price dropped..
Seems like someone had a large weighting and wanted to sell this bad boy at the top. So he created a reason that no one would question.
Crypto Market Update
Bounce Confirmed?
Would you look at that?!
As pointed out in the last edition of Skeptical Insight, we had reason to believe that the bottom for the crypto market was in.
The last two weeks have proven that the underlying technical indicators proved right again despite the negative news narrative hanging over the investing world like a dark cloud.
In the last 6 weeks since the Tariff games began, Bitcoin has rallied off the lows and has almost cleared all the retracement levels. Although this carries some excitement, Crypto being crypto, I’m expecting some consolidation in Bitcoin over the next few months. Maybe the old saying of “sell in May and go away” will hold true for another year.
I’m still in the camp that the market holds together longer and Bitcoin eventually makes new highs. I struggle to believe that Bitcoin will get much higher than $130k before liquidity dries up across the board. I fully believe that as Bitcoin's risk-reward decreases, retail investors, will start searching for riskier options to invest their capital. This generally means capital will flow into altcoins and the Bitcoin Dominance will fall off a cliff, like it has previously.
Until that time I am happy enough being positioned in the market.
As for Monero..
I added Monero to my portfolio on December 9th, 2024 after it broke out of its 3 year consolidation range. I have been discussing my thesis in the newsletters and sometimes I wonder if I got lucky or if I positioned myself to be lucky. Either way it’s worked out better than expected.
More specifically from last newsletter:
It’s current price action is one of the most bullish charts I have seen in a long time. If this month can close with a bullish hammer candlestick as it looks now, it would confirm as a retest of the Wyckoff accumulation range. All the indicators on the monthly timeframe are opening in a way that support this thesis.
Famous last words but “nothing stops this train”.
When the stars align magic seems to happen:
Monero has been one of the strongest performers since the turn of the year and it’s up 100% since the Tariff crash. I wouldn’t be surprised if we find some resistance at this level now that we have reached the 0.702 retracement of the larger range from 2018.
This consolidation may begin the rotation around the market which will see certain assets play catch up to the leaders. This will cause retail to jump from one coin to another, often leaving them with nothing to show for their efforts.
Over the next few weeks I'll continue to monitor the rotation within the equity markets and see if this will develop any further. As for crypto, I'm sitting tight and waiting for the Bitcoin Dominance to unravel itself. Hopefully summer isn't as boring as I've indicated.
Stay Skeptical,
Matt Lieshout
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is not investment advice. It is provided solely for educational purposes. Our aim is to enhance your understanding and decision-making as an investor; however, you are solely responsible for conducting your own due diligence and consulting a qualified financial professional prior to making any investment decisions. Skeptical Investing and Matthew Lieshout reserve all rights to the content of this publication and related materials. Proceed with caution and at your own risk.
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